Free Economic Charts



 

Forecasting The Next Recession

 

Investing in the right asset classes & sectors at the right stage in the business cycle is one of the most important drivers of performance for investors.  The same is true by knowing which asset classes and sectors to avoid and when.  What’s more, this “timing factor” may indeed have the greatest impact on your financial future.  While predicting market downturns and recessions may be a challenge, it is possible to get an early read on forecasting the next recession by analyzing historical data and late-cycle patterns of key economic and market indicators.   

The current analysis, as of April 10th 2018, suggests no immediate recession in the next 6 months.  However, it is possible that we experience a market-driven sell-off in the next 6 months.  Looking out 12 months and beyond, the probability of a recession increases, with an above-average probability occurring in 18 months – 36 months.


1. GDPNow Forecast    –   Updated June 15, 2018

4.8%

 

For latest GDPNow forecast, please click here to be re-directed to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow website.


2. Gross Domestic Product    –   Updated: April 27, 2018)

2.3% – Q1 2018

 


3. Unemployment Rate   –   Updated March 2018

4.1%

 

 


4.   Non-Farm Payrolls   –   Updated March 2018

148,230     


5.   Four-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims   –   Updated 3-31-2018

228,250


6.   Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (Billions of U.S. Dollars)   –   Updated February 2018

 2,122.0270  


7.  Total Unemployed, U6   –   Updated March 2018

8.0%


8.  Consumer Price Index   –   Updated February 2018

2.5


9.  Personal Consumer Expenditures   –   Updated February 2018

4.6


10.  Industrial Production Index   –   Updated February 2018

 4.3


11. Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Index   –   Updated February 2018

0.65551


12.  Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods    –   February 2018

247,255


13.  Total Construction Spending  (Millions of Dollars) –   Updated February 2018

1,273,085


14. Leading Index for the United States   –   Jan 2018

1.57


15. Velocity of M2 Money Stock (Q4 2017)

1.432


16. Total Vehicle Sales (Millions of Units)   –   February 2018

 17.4    

 


17. Federal Debt to GDP   –   Updated Q4 2017

 103.73920


18.  Federal Debt:  Total Public Debt (Millions of Dollars)   –  Updated Q4 2017

20,492,747


19.  New One Family Houses Sold (Thousands)   –   February 2018

 618 


19.  Corporate Profits (Billions of Dollars)   –   Q4 2017

1,680.250  


19.  Effective Fed Funds Rate  (Updated June 13, 2018)

1.75 – 2.00%


  FOMC Participants’ Assessments of Appropriate Monetary Policy – June 13, 2018

 

  


19.  Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity   –   04-06-2018

1.1%


20.  Delinquencies on All Loans and Leases To Consumers, All Commercial Banks   –   Updated  February 22, 2018

$36.360 Billion


21.  Industrial Production: Manufacturing   –   Updated 5/16/2018


22. Advance Retail Sales: Retail (Excluding Food Services)   –   Updated 6/14/2018


23.  CME Fed Watch Tool   –   6/14/2018
                        

        

                          

                    

Source: CME Group


 Source:  Federal Reserve, St. Louis Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, US Treasury & U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis